O*NET-SOC 49-9021.00 / model V11 rated-task engine

Will AI replace
Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers?

Install or repair heating, central air conditioning, HVAC, or refrigeration systems, including oil burners, hot-air furnaces, and heating stoves.

Estimated AI task exposure

Low exposure

V11 weights occupation tasks using O*NET Importance, Relevance and Frequency ratings instead of treating every task equally.

30 tasks have usable Task Rating records; weighted-task coverage is 100%.

Digital/info work

36/100

Physical moat

88/100

Human moat

23/100

Rating coverage

100%

30 task statements / 30 rated

Highest-weighted occupation tasks

Comply with all applicable standards, policies, or procedures, such as safety procedures or the maintenance of a clean work area.

Importance 79/100Relevance 100/100Frequency 73/100Weight 0.85

Discuss heating or cooling system malfunctions with users to isolate problems or to verify that repairs corrected malfunctions.

Importance 85/100Relevance 82/100Frequency 65/100Weight 0.79

Estimate, order, pick up, deliver, and install materials and supplies needed to maintain equipment in good working condition.

Importance 80/100Relevance 91/100Frequency 59/100Weight 0.79

Record and report time, materials, faults, deficiencies, or other unusual occurrences on work orders.

Importance 77/100Relevance 91/100Frequency 63/100Weight 0.79

Study blueprints, design specifications, or manufacturers' recommendations to ascertain the configuration of heating or cooling equipment components and to ensure the proper installation of components.

Importance 72/100Relevance 95/100Frequency 56/100Weight 0.77

Repair or service heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to improve efficiency, such as by changing filters, cleaning ducts, and refilling non-toxic refrigerants.

Importance 78/100Relevance 92/100Frequency 51/100Weight 0.76

Supervise and instruct assistants.

Importance 70/100Relevance 93/100Frequency 58/100Weight 0.76

Install, connect, or adjust thermostats, humidistats, or timers.

Importance 79/100Relevance 83/100Frequency 57/100Weight 0.75

Repair or replace defective equipment, components, or wiring.

Importance 81/100Relevance 83/100Frequency 53/100Weight 0.75

Test pipes, lines, components, and connections for leaks.

Importance 78/100Relevance 92/100Frequency 43/100Weight 0.74

Task weighting

Each rated task receives a composite weight: 38% relevance, 37% importance and 25% frequency. Core tasks receive a small additional multiplier. Low-precision rows flagged by O*NET for suppression are excluded.

Occupation scoring

When rating coverage is strong, rated tasks contribute 60% of the digital, physical and human task signals and Work Activities contribute 40%. Lower-coverage occupations automatically rely more on Work Activities.

U.S. labor market

BLS Wage & Employment Outlook

Median annual wage

$61,010

BLS OEWS May 2025

National employment

409,670

BLS OEWS May 2025

Projected growth

+10.9%

BLS Employment Projections 2025–2035

Average annual openings

41

BLS Employment Projections 2025–2035

BLS labor-market figures are separate from the site's AI-exposure model. Missing values mean a compatible detailed BLS occupation estimate was not published or could not be mapped.

Career pivot radar

Safer Career Alternatives

These options are selected from the same 923-occupation model. They favor a similar task/work profile with meaningfully lower estimated AI exposure. They are suggestions for exploration, not guarantees of job fit.

SAFER ALTERNATIVE